In the first part of our overview, we analyzed the income statement, now we are going to look at the capital structure of our business, namely: the balance sheet. If earnings are our engine, the balance sheet is the frame of our machine. I like using allegory to make the point, in this case a good one could be the hull of a boat.
In the holy bible Noah was a God’s prophet, in his days the God warned Noah about the advent of a catastrophic flooding, and he ordered him to build a boat in order to survive. God gives to Noah the technical specificity of the ark. Time passes but there is always an upcoming apocalypse to worry about, it is the cyclical nature of our universe. If we invest for the long run, our boat has to survive financial floods and storms, in other words: bubbles and bust (Article Stock Market Crash).
There are some characteristics that make our boat apocalypse-proof. We always hear about financial crises, our duty is not to anticipate these events (it is quite impossible), rather, it is to be on board the right boat. When the flood comes the action to do isn’t throw yourself out in the middle of the storm, instead, choose the right boat before the storm comes, and never leave them and rather give it more “financial fuel”, “our money”.
“Every decade or so, dark clouds will fill the economic skies, and they will briefly rain gold. When downpours of that sort occur, it’s imperative that we rush outdoors carrying wash tubs, not teaspoons”
Warren Buffett
What we are going to learn:
- Understand the meaning of the balance sheet
- Read a balance sheet statement at a glance
- Focus on fundamental numbers and extrapolate some metrics
- Contextualize the number within the business maturation stage
In the first part of my article 15. income statements analysis, we spoke about the predictability of the future earnings.
Predictability is warranted by the company’s competitive advantage (Article 14. it’s a war).
The MOAT is principally tied to our story and confirmed by the past performance, the track record which gives us insight on the management ability to conduct the business.
Today, we analyze the present structure of the business, as God gives Noah instruction on how to build the ark. We are going to dig into the key figures that tell us if the company can survive a financial storm. When the monetary and fiscal policy are relaxed, even weak companies survive, as is the case nowadays with low interest rates and quantitative easing environment, but what happens if something changes and the financial environment becomes hostile?
We need a business which can survive in two types of environment: liquidity contraction and/or highly inflationary (5.1 Appendix – Currency Value). We cannot predict the macro events nor timing the market, but we can do an engineering valuation of our boat. If the hull of the boat is not solid, we are not going to see the future cash flow of our business. After this intro, let’s go to check if our boat has some leaks.
“It is well to consider the financial strength and debt structure to see if a few bad years would hinder the company’s long-term progress.”
Peter Lynch
Lynch also refers to the Balance Sheet as a “Survivability factor”.
Foundation.
The balance sheet shows what a company owns and owes, and how much shareholders have invested in.
The formula:
Assets = Liabilities + Equity
This is the basic formula of the balance sheet equilibrium, and it is the alloy that makes up the hull of our boat.
Assets
Anything of value, which has a cash value and/or generates cash, i.e.: cash, buildings, infrastractures,..
A few examples:
- Company = farm’s truck: utilized to grow oats which once sold generate cash.
- Individual = house: rented for income
Note: Usually, if inflation goes up, the value of assets already in place go up compared to the book value (replacement cost).
Liabilities
Something (i.e., assets) owed to somebody else.
An example:
- Every sort of debt, often used to finances the acquisition of an assets, which will generate cash to repaid the debt interest, and generate additional income (e.g., mortgage)
Here we can note the importance of producing more earnings than the cost of the obligation (interest rate) aka Return On Capital employed. If not, the company is burning cash.
In other words, if I assume a debt of 100 and I have to pay an 1% interest, and I use this money to develop a project which returns < 1%, we are paying more, respect to our return, that is called Value Destruction. I will go into the details in the Ratio Section of this article.
Examples: commercial paper, bills, notes, bonds, etc.
An advice by the GOAT
“Companies that have no debt can’t go bankrupt.”
Peter Lynch
“First rules of investing, never lose money”
Warren Buffett
Here the importance of capital structure, bankruptcy is one of the few cases where you could lose all of your money overnight, the rest is stock volatility. Even if the company manages to service its debt, this payment decreases the cash flow available to pay shareholders. When a company downsizes its debt burden, it releases money for shareholders: dividends, repurchases and investments.
Remember: the true nature of investing regards the money the company pays us, not the price set by Mr. Market. (article 8. Mr Market)
Equity
Simply put, this is your piece of the cake. What amount of money, hypothetically, would be returned to you as an owner if the company would be liquidated. Equity can also be called book value. For some sectors or businesses, book value per share can be a useful metric (notoriously in the past Warren Buffett buybacks $BRK stock under 1.2 times book value, as a sort of proxy to define the intrinsic value, indeed a smooth growth in equity could be a good sign).
Example:
- individual = Equity is what belongs to you after you deduct the mortgage of your house from the total value, that’s the Equity of your home.
It is composed by two essential parts:
- Original investment and later investment
- Retaining earnings: is the percentage of profit that was not paid as dividend/buybacks, accumulated overtime and can be reinvested for new projects and acquisition or used to pay off debt.
As usual there is not a magic formula. However, in the example of the previous article, the best companies don’t need external fuel, but those companies use their profit as fuel. In other words they are self-financed.
Another example: Alibaba uses e-commerce main business as a fuel generator for AliCloud and Venture Capitalist investment not yet profitable. You can see the potential of a business that has excess cash to deploy in a series of new projects, even in uncharted and risky territory. These ventures are named optionality and companies like this are named spawners.
Based on the description by Mohnish Pabrai, a spawner is a company with “DNA, which reflects a deep conviction in the importance of relentlessly adding and incubating new businesses that have the potential to be massive growth engines.”
As every equation we can extrapolate the variable we want to calculate, for example:
Shareholders’ Net Worth (Equity) = Assets – Liabilities
If we divide it by the number of shares we obtain the book value per share (bvps).
BVPS = Shareholders equity / number of shares.
Now it is clear why the Balance sheets are useful and important, because they define what we own, as investors.
Intangible
Something forgotten by accounting is the importance of intangible assets, namely the money spent by the company in order to develop new technologies (Research & Development R&D) for developing a brand (Sales, General and Administrative SG&A), for training specialized labor forces (COGS) or create a new intellectual property. These items are not capitalized (transformed into an asset then depreciated overtime), but those intangibles have a long term value, mostly in our tech oriented society.
In other words, this money spent will generate real assets, even if they are not represented in the balance sheet, rather those intangible assets are treated as cost and immediate expense.
Brand, franchising, trained labor, intellectual property, customer lists, reputation, culture, loyal employees, data, those are only some examples which share some of the features of physical assets, and they can generate cash flow over time.
Mickey Mouse could be a good example.
Mickey was the creation of two brilliant minds, Walt Disney and Ub Iwerks. These two guys have spent energy in order to draw and develop this character, in the form of time, money and brain power. This energy has been converted into one of the most notorious and valuable fictional characters of all time, imagine how much money $DIS extrapolate from this creative work (e.g., comics, books, parks, merchandising,…).
“in 1966 people said “Well, Mary Poppins is terrific this year, but they [Disney] are not going to have another Mary Poppins next year, so the earnings will be down.” I don’t care if the earnings are down like that. You know you’ve still got Mary Poppins to throw out in seven more years, assuming kids squawk a little. I mean there’s no better system than to have something where, essentially, you get a new crop every seven years and you get to charge more each time.”
Warren Buffett
We all know how many cash crops Disney made over the last 70 years thanks to the large number of characters owned by the company. Intellectual properties could be an eternal money mine with the difference that a mine needs physical infrastructures which in turns needs maintenance, Mickey not. Furthermore nobody else can own a Mickey Mouse.
What does this mean?
In an inflationary environment, your maintenance/replacements costs are going to increase, reducing the profit margin, that doesn’t happen with IP (intellectual property). Other than that, its life expectancy is sustained by its current age, as it is the case for Mickey (Lindy effect). Then rather than depreciate, often intangibles gain value proportionally to their age, the passage of time crystallizes the brand recognition in the customers minds, namely mindshare, a notion already discussed in the past article.
In this sense, also my blog is an intangible asset, my hope is to create something that can generate value for the readers and last over time.
“I only hope that we never lose sight of one thing – that it was all started by a mouse”
Walt Disney, Disneyland, October 27, 1954
Where the intellectual works of Disney are presented in its balance sheet?
Obviously this is an extreme example. But it is worth noting that the Disney empire is founded on assets which do not appear on the balance sheet, it will appear only if someone, in a hypothetical future, will buy Disney. Because of the earnings power, the buyer will have to pay a premium over the equity. This premium is named Goodwill, but doesn’t exist in the previous balance sheet of the acquired company, because the assets are not tangible.
Another example: FaceBook/Instagram/Whatsapp – Network effect. (Thanks Zuck!)
Does it remind you of something? MOAT? Be careful, it seems that the secret sauce of a great business does not lie in a figure of the balance sheet. (Article 14. it’s a war) As a reminder of the last article. Income statement analysis, it is useful to remember that profit earned by a business and reported in the income statement are also recorded in the balance sheet,and it increases the Retained earnings figure under the equity section.
Balance sheet lines analyze
Made the necessary premises, now is time to analyze the balance sheet lines.
Assets
Current assets
Assets expected to be used by business operations in the next 12 months. Include: Cash and cash equivalents, account receivable, inventory, marketable security and other liquid assets.
Cash and cash equivalent.
These are assets owned by the company that are cash or can be converted into cash immediately (e.g., marketable security).
How much cash is it good to have?
As usual there is not a unique answer, but from what I saw, it’s always a good thing. Mostly during prosperity periods, to accumulate some cash. That is because when a storm arrives, cash gives us fuel to weather the storm, and other than that, if our CEO is a great capital allocator, he will take advantage of the crisis acquiring assets at a discount and consequently with a high Return on Investment (ROI). Even a great company will suffer damage during a storm, the goal is survive and thrive in the post flood environment. Usually after a storm, weak companies drown, and the industry consolidates, permitting the fittest to thrive and acquiring good assets.
“Antifragility is beyond resilience or robustness. The resilient resists shocks and stays the same; the antifragile gets better.”
Nassim Nicolas Taleb
That does not mean it is good to hoard an exaggerated quantity of money, but if there is not a great opportunity it is better to retain some cash, at minimum some cash or liquid assets sufficient to cover short liabilities.
“We just want to get through the typhoon, and we’d rather come out of it with a whole lot of liquidity”
Charlie Munger referring to Berkshire Hathaway $BRK
Finally, I want to remind you of a fundamental principle of investing, we, as investors, buy a business not a stock.
Often, a market crisis is caused by a liquidity contraction (e.g. increases interest -> decreases circulating money -> average Joe: “I sell my s&p 500 index in the worst moment possible because I’ve to refinance my liabilities at a high rate then I need some money“, this phenomenon causes also the stock price of good company to nosedive, a great management with money at hand will buybacks stocks and that permits us to increase our slice of the pie (7. How company reward us).
And you have to do the same, increase your stakes in great companies!
“In the midst of chaos, there is also opportunity”
Sun Tzu
Account Receivable
Account Receivables (AR) are debts owed to the company by its customers for goods or service already delivered. If it grows overtime, it could be the sign that customers are unable or unwilling to pay, a warning sign that is worth digging. If the AR are too low it could be a sign of the company’s rigidity in its payment terms to its customers. The risk is that the company will not be able to recover the money due, forcing the company to write off the AR.
Inventory
Raw materials, work in process and finished goods. A company has in its stock that material will ultimately be sold. When an item is sold, its carrying cost transfers to the COGS Cost Of Good Sold(article income statement).
How to value inventory.
Holding an inventory as a cost, moreover products tend to become obsolete (think about the inventory with iPhone when Apple throws out a new model). Consequently it is better to have a quick turnover cycle depending on the industry.
Inventory turnover: COGS / Average inventory.
The results tell us how many times per year a company sold its entire inventory.
Inventory growth > Sales growth = red flag.
Warning: an inventory turnover too high can mean that the company does not have sufficient inventory to cover the demands.
“Examples abound of how considerable increases in inventory and/or accounts receivable can forecast downward earnings and surprises. This is especially true in those industries subject to rapid changes in products and taste. Expect to find them in companies dealing with high fashion, seasonal goods, and especially high tech. No investor seriously involved with stocks in these industries can afford to ignore accounts receivable and inventories.”
Thorton L. O’Glove, Quality of Earnings
Deferred tax assets
This asset is usually created when a business incurs a loss in a financial year (NOL: Net Operating Loss) or a company overpaid or paid in advance taxes. It can be carried over indefinitely and can be used to reduce future tax liability.
Non-current assets
Noncurrent assets are assets tangible or intangible that will benefit the company for more than one year. PP&E, long term investment, goodwill.
Gross Property, Plant and Equipment (PP&E)
Tangible long term assets also known as Fixed Assets: machinery, computers, office equipment, vehicles, furniture, buildings, lands.
Accumulated depreciation
As explained in the last article (15. Income statements analysis) is the process of allocating the cost of a tangible asset over its useful life, this involves the reduction of its accounting value.
Net PP&E
The results from the depreciation of our assets over time.
Gross PP&E – Accumulated depreciation.
In other words, the remaining accounting value of our physical assets.
As you can imagine, this is an accounting trick, some assets behave in an opposite manner, gaining value over time. Some investors are specialized in finding this type of imbalance, where the value of the asset is more than its accounting value. Peter Lynch named them “Asset Play”, the same notion can be applicable to the intangible assets which are not even presented.
“Consider tor example that generally accepted accounting principles permit a firm to write of a factory over 20 years, using straight line depreciation. Suppose the property cost $20 million originally. Would you say it was worth only $5 million after fifteen years? That is what the company’s books would indicate, but given the nature of the real estate market, that building might fetch $30 million or more. Yet every year the firm deducted an item of $1 million lor factory depreciation, when perhaps it would have been more realistic to add a million for appreciation.”
Quality of earnings, Thornton L. O’glove
Long term investment
Like us, companies also invest in securities such as: stocks, bonds, real estate, cash. This investment is intended to be held for more than a year.
Goodwill
I explained goodwill in the last article.
A “goodwill is the premium companies pay in order to buy an asset or make an acquisition, sometimes this premium is well deserved and sometimes not.” The balance sheet represents the present value of this intangible asset netted by impairments.
A warning sign could be a high percentage of goodwill over assets, it’s worth digging on the capital allocation ability of the CEO.
For example, if a company pays $1 mio to buy another company that has net assets of $500k, they are going to have $500k of goodwill on their balance sheet. The net assets that they have acquired for $500k cost to them more than if they are to buy the business components separately. If it turns out that the whole acquired company doesn’t generate the expected Cash Flow over time, they would need to start impairing the goodwill asset. If a company keeps acquiring assets or entire companies and later they regularly charge impairment related to them, it’s a red flag, you have to dig on this or pass.
Instead if impairments are sporadic events, say one in the last 5 years, it may not be a major problem.
Liabilities
Current liabilities
Short term financial obligations that are due in the next 12 months, including account payable, deferred revenue, short term debt, dividends, notes payable, taxes owed.
Account Payable
Account payables (AP) are amounts due to suppliers for services or goods received, but not yet paid. It is a sort of short term loan, indeed lengthening the payment time is a source of cash for the company.
AP are the liabilities counterpart of the AR (Account Receivables), previously analyzed.
Deferred/unearned revenue
Advance payments: a company received service/products not yet delivered. Not represented in the income until service/product will be delivered, but it will be shown in the cash flow statement when cash is received.
Revenue recognition means that the revenue can only be recognized when the revenue process is complete, payment has been made and the good/service has been delivered.
A common example could be a subscription-based product or services that require prepayments.
Short term borrowing
Financial obligations that are expected to be paid within a year.
Non current liabilities
Financial obligations that are not due within the upcoming year, long term debt and leases.
Long term debt
Debts are not necessarily bad, but could become a big problem.
Debt is useful and its scope is to generate wealth in our society. A good starting point in order to understand the role of debt is a video made by Ray Dalio (How economic machine works).
However, debt is a social problem. When an individual, a business or a society brings more debt than is productive output, there could be a problem (unless you are the reserve currency printer, namely US, but this is another story – Lyn Alden Petrodollar).
Interest rates are low then, having some debt, could be a good idea, but only if that more money is used to generate wealth in the long term. For example, having a huge pile of debts and paying high dividends to the shareholders may seem a good idea, but in reality is the sign of a myopic management with a short term vision.
High level of debt means high level of interest to pay, this interest will reduce the cash our business can pay to us as owners, moreover this debt burden must be rapaid sooner or later, reducing future cash generation. Some companies rather than lower their dividend and lose their investors, those companies use debt to payout dividends, that increases debt services and reduces the future gain.
In other words, it is the action of a short-sighted management and it will be detrimental for long term shareholders. It is useful to compare cash and long term debt in order to understand how much net debt the company has.
Why do some companies have cash and debt?
There are many reasons.
The first reason is the tax advantage. Another reason worth noting is that some companies are international, then they have assets in foreign currency exposed to local devaluation risks to compensate for this devaluation the company takes a debt in the same currency, in order to take advantage of local currency devaluation without trapping money in countries with weak currency.
Leases
Lease is a contract between two parties, where the lessee pays the lessors for an asset use.
Be careful, capital leases are counted as liabilities.
A new FASB rule, effective Dec. 15, 2018, requires that all leases unless they are shorter than 12 months must be recognized on the balance sheet.
Number of common stock
We have already discussed the notion of share repurchases (how companies reward us). I want to highlight an aspect, companies not only repurchase shares, but sometimes they issue new fresh stocks, having the opposite effect: namely diluting the stocks count thus devaluing the value of a single stock.
You can think that: stocks are like money, a store of value. Companies can pay investors, employees or even what they need with stocks. We, as investors gain, when there are fewer stocks, because in this manner we own a big piece of the cake. On the other hand the management could pay itself and the employer with stocks (Stock Based Compensation). Nothing wrong about it, if employees and management are themselves owners could mean that they act like owners in the interest of us, as investors.
This is a complex argument that needs a separate article, but it is worth remembering for the next article where we are going to analyze the cash flow. Other than that it is good to look at the number of share counts over time in order to understand if the company is diluting our earning participation.
The management must treat shares as if they are gold bullions, nothing wrong using stock as a currency, but only if the exchange is worth our gold bullions.
When you are trying to catch the last overpriced hot stock with uncertain financial future, remember this chart and think about how the wealth is created. Wealth is created over time by a cash machine business and a management aligned with shareholder interest! (Berkshire Hathaways $BRK case study)
Since Tim Cook became CEO of Apple 10 years ago the stock soared 1022% (ten bagger).
Net Working Capital (NWC)
The NWC is the difference between current assets and current liabilities. NWC tells us the operational efficiency of the business, in other word the ability to reduce the costs and improve the gain in the short term transaction. If a company has positive working capital, it means that it has the ability to invest money in the business. The goal is to cover operating expenses while using assets in the most productive manner.
As usual, one of the most important goals is resource optimization.
NWC = Current Assets – Current Liabilities
A negative working capital suggests there will be trouble to pay the short term debts. The consequence could be the reduction of Cash Flow in order to weather the short term liquidity issues.
Ratios and metrics
Ratios are useful to compare the historical data and data between companies, it is worth remembering that capital structure can vary between sector and maturation stage (e.g., Some capital intensive sectors have a huge debt burden. That could be a normal or a mature company with stable earnings that could have an high credit rating, thus this will pay much less in borrowing costs. )
The table on fig. 8 by Prof Aswath Damoradan is useful to contextualize the figures, every stage of the life of the company has its optimal blend of assets/debt/equity.
Return on Equity (ROE)
ROE measures the financial performance and corporate profitability of assets owned by investors. It is useful to define the ability of the management to make profit with our money.
It defines how much profit is generated for each shareholder dollar. Earnings growth can never exceed ROE. Be careful, a high ROE is not a guarantee of growth.
ROE = Net income / average shareholders’ equity
“Focus on Return on Equity, not earnings per share”
Warren Buffett
Be wary, in order to understand the results we have to know the capital structure. Basically, if equity is the result of Assets – liabilities, the more liabilities we have the higher is the ROE.
Keep in mind, there is not a magic formula, but we need a holistic approach.
Return on Assets (ROA) and Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)
Similar to ROE but with a different denominator, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) is used to evaluate the capital allocation ability on total available capital.
ROA = Net income /Total assets
ROIC = Net income / (Debt + Equity)
ROIC > Cost Of Capital = Value Creation
ROIC < Cost Of Capital = Value Destruction
The deal is finding a business which produces a high ROIC, and it can deploy all its earned cash at the same high ROIC, this would be a legendary business.
Unfortunately businesses like that are very rare, indeed Buffett structured the Berkshire Hathaway holding using cash generated by high ROIC business in new projects with high ROIC, here is where the power of compounding takes form(article link compounding).
Usually High ROIC businesses deploy this cash to payout dividend or repurchase shares, in the worst case those will deploy cash in low ROIC businesses destroying value through “diworsification” (over expansion of a company into new projects it does not fully understand and which does not align with the competencies of the management/outside circle of competence. Reference: One Upon Wall Street, Peter Lynch)
Time Warner AOL example “AOL Time Warner (2001–2003)”
“Over the long term, it’s hard for a stock to earn a much better return than the business which underlies it earns. If the business earns 6% on capital over 40 years and you hold it for that 40 years, you’re not going to make much difference than a 6% return—even if you originally buy it at a huge discount. Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital over 20 or 30 years, even if you pay an expensive looking price, you’ll end up with a fine result.”
Charlie Munger
Please Note: Fund Smith’s table represents returns from 1973 while my ROIC data have a limited timeframe, however consider that usually overtime ROIC tends to decrease because competitors are attracted by high profits, and enter into market and subtracts returns from the incumbent. However, if a company has a competitive advantage, the MOAT will protect the ROIC.
Even if you pay a high price, over the long term if you buy a great company with a high return on capital your Total Shareholder Return (TSR) will be good. It is worth remembering that these metrics are alway past looking, in other words we are looking at past performance. Past data are useful to understand the management ability, but they are not certainties for future returns.
“In the business world, unfortunately, the rear-view mirror is always clearer than the windshield.”
Warren Buffett
This means two things:
- The art of investing is the ability to use past numbers and stories to help us to hypothesize the existence of a MOAT, and the ability of the management to defend and improve this MOAT over time. That is the secret to maintaining the past performances. We, as investors, use this data and our future outlook to choose the investment with the best probabilistic chance to realize a gain. For that reason I’m obsessed with the idea of finding companies with a wide competitive advantage.
- The past uses of capital is a responsibility of the management and condition of the past. It is entirely possible that the recent Capital Allocation has become better or worse, but our metrics pay the price of past weak decisions (e.g., if management in the past overpay for an asset, this excess can weigh on the balance sheet).
Ideally, we want to assess the present capital allocation decision, but almost always, we have the data of the entire asset’s story of the business, and we can’t assess the Return of Capital for every single project.
Debt to Equity
D/E = Debt / Equity
It is important to highlight: the ideal debt to equity proportion depends on the sector and the maturity stage of the company.
A ratio of 2 or higher is considered risky.
Interest Coverage Ratio (ICR)
Company ability to service its debts obligations
ICR = Earnings before interest and taxes / Interest expenses
A ICR of 1.5 is considered the minimum acceptable.
Note: Interest expenses are shown in the cash flow statement, we will analyze it in the next article.
Quick Ratio (Acid Test)
Company ability to to pay down current debt using near cash assets.
QR = (Cash + Securities + Receivables) / Current Liabilities
Ideally a company should have a ratio of 1 or higher.
Enterprise Value (EV)
The Enterprise value offers a more comprehensive and clear picture of the real value of a company.
EV enterprise value = total debt + market capitalization – cash
Basically is how much is needed to buy the entire company.
The EV could be an useful tool to analyze the business from a different perspective, and helps investors to have a broad vision on the capital structure of the business. It is useful to compare business in the same industry.
Enterprise value (EV) / operating earnings (EBIT)
EV/EBIT
A ratio below 10 is retained cheap.
I want to highlight the thought of one of the most influential economists of the 20th century:
“In chemistry and physics and other natural sciences the object of experiment is to fill in the actual values of the various quantities and factors appearing in an equation or a formula; and the work when done is once and for all. In economics that is not the case, and to convert a model into a quantitative formula is to destroy its usefulness as an instrument of thought.”
JM Keynes
Investing is an art, formulas are useful, but the complexity of investing cannot be captured by a mathematical formula.
Note: Financial sector has different rules (outside my circle of competence), within this sector high level debt could be normal.
In the next chapter I am going to focus on what shareholders really care about: cash available for operations and investments! That is the Cash Flow statements, stay tuned!
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