Esc.
A 2025 letter revisits investing, technological change and the need to update one’s convictions without following a tribe.
Notes from a life of learning
Ideas that
compound.
Investing, Artificial Intelligence and independent thinking. Essays to help you understand businesses, build useful tools and make more deliberate choices.
Explore the writing
Investing & Bitcoin
Understand businesses, think in decades and explore ownership in a digital world.
New to investing? Follow Be prepared →31 posts
Reset filtersBitcoin Self-Custody
Brief personal notes on Bitcoin custody, UTXOs and settlement layers.
Compound your Energy
A 2023 investment letter connects patient ownership, personal energy and the ambition to buy back time.
Bitcoin Diary
Dated Bitcoin reflections connect monetary networks, energy, incentives and personal independence.
List of Gurus
A directory of investors, research sources and counterarguments that inform the investing course.
18. Intrinsic Value - Discounted Cash Flow
Builds a discounted-cash-flow framework while questioning its assumptions through code and business judgment.
The Mentors: Nomad Letters quotes
A curated collection from the Nomad investment letters on patience, judgment, business culture and shared scale benefits.
17. Cash Flow Statement Analysis
Follows cash through a business to examine reinvestment, incentives and the quality of reported performance.
Go deeper, one step at a time
Follow a reading path.
Investing, wellbeing and personal AI5 posts The thread through everything
A short route from the purpose of the blog to money, the mind and personal AI.
Browse this path →21 posts Learn to understand a business
The complete Be prepared course, from why we invest to financial statements and valuation.
- Be prepared - Index
- 1. Why Should I invest
- 2. Trading or investing
- 3. Wealth
- 4. What's the goal?
- 5. Active or passive investing
- 5.1 Appendix - Currency Value
- 6. The eighth marvel of the world
- 7. How the companies reward us
- 8. Mr Market
- 9. Value investing
- 9.1 Appendix - Economic Cycles
- 10. Circle of competence
- 11. Stories and numbers
- 12. Starting point
- 13. 10-K
- 14. It's a war
- 15. Income statement analysis
- 16. Balance Sheet Analysis
- 17. Cash Flow Statement Analysis
- 18. Intrinsic Value - Discounted Cash Flow
3 posts Build your foundations
Read the three Optimalism essays in their original order: diet, body, mind.
Browse this path →4 posts From knowledge to a personal AI
Follow the experiments from community memory to digital mentors and Logos.
- Artificial Intelligence and Collective Consciousness
- AI and community Consciousness, Chapter Two
- Chapter III: Digital Marcus Aurelius
- Logos
The connections behind the writing
Different subjects.
A shared question.
How do we become more independent?
Choose a branch to explore its ideas and posts, or follow a connection across subjects.
Build a more
independent life.Knowledge → choices → action
AI & TechnologyBuild better toolsInvesting & BitcoinPut capital to workMind & LearningStrengthen your foundationsSociety & PhilosophyQuestion the bigger pictureTravel & Field NotesTest ideas in the worldindependent life.Knowledge → choices → action
Where the subjects meet
Connections drawn from the essaysBrowse every branch and its original articles:
AI & Technology
Personal AI, memory and the tools that extend what one person can do.
Investing & Bitcoin
Understand businesses, think in decades and explore ownership in a digital world.
- Esc.
- Bitcoin Self-Custody
- Compound your Energy
- Bitcoin Diary
- List of Gurus
- 18. Intrinsic Value - Discounted Cash Flow
- The Mentors: Nomad Letters quotes
- 17. Cash Flow Statement Analysis
- 16. Balance Sheet Analysis
- 15. Income statement analysis
- Stock Market Crash
- 14. It's a war
- 13. 10-K
- Cryptocurrencies
- Case Study 2 - Berkshire Hathaway
- 12. Starting point
- 11. Stories and numbers
- 10. Circle of competence
- Case study 1 - Tesla (TSLA)
- 9.1 Appendix - Economic Cycles
- 9. Value investing
- 8. Mr Market
- 7. How the companies reward us
- 6. The eighth marvel of the world
- 5.1 Appendix - Currency Value
- 5. Active or passive investing
- 4. What's the goal?
- 3. Wealth
- 2. Trading or investing
- 1. Why Should I invest
- Be prepared - Index
Mind & Learning
Attention, physical practice and the habits behind independent judgment.
Society & Philosophy
Belief, historical patterns and the institutions that shape our choices.
Travel & Field Notes
Firsthand experience as a way to challenge assumptions and discover another perspective.
New writing
New posts are available here while their connections are being curated.
Editorial map of 51 posts read in full · Reviewed September 2026. Connections describe the writing; open a post for its complete argument.
Be prepared · The investing series
Think like
an owner.
Behind every stock is a business. Learn to read its story, understand its numbers and question the price.
See the bigger picture
One decision. Six connected ideas.
Choose an idea to find the chapters behind it.
Be preparedThink like
an owner.Understand the business.
Then consider the price.
What is the money for?↗an owner.Understand the business.
Then consider the price.
Your reason to invest
Time & freedomOwnership & purchasing powerThe compounding effect Can you think beyond the price?↗Independent judgment
Mr Market & herd behaviourCycles & patienceYour circle of competence Why should this business last?↗The story & the moat
Management, culture & customersAnnual reports & the 10-KCompetitive advantage Does the evidence fit the story?↗The numbers behind it
Income → profitabilityBalance sheet → resilienceCash flow → cash generation What happens to the cash?↗The compounding engine
Capital allocation & reinvestmentDividends & buybacksReturns on capital What are you willing to pay?↗Price, value & uncertainty
Future cash flows & assumptionsReverse DCF & market expectationsA margin of safetyFollow this idea
Your reason to invest
The series begins with a personal goal: buying back time. Explore ownership, the choice between active and passive investing, and what time and reinvestment can do together.
View the complete reading order ↓How the ideas connect
A moat has a financial consequence.
The story of a competitive advantage supports the assumptions about how long cash generation can last.
Compounding happens inside the business.
Management’s use of cash connects shareholder rewards, returns on capital and the ability to reinvest.
The story still needs a reality check.
Business narratives, financial evidence and valuation assumptions have to make sense together.
Read it like a book
The complete Be prepared series.
Start at the beginning or return to the chapter you need. The early chapters establish the mindset; the later ones work through company research, financial statements and valuation.
- 1. Why Should I invest
An introduction to investing as capital allocation and participation in the businesses that shape society.
- 2. Trading or investing
Contrasts short-term trading impulses with patient ownership of productive businesses.
- 3. Wealth
A short introduction to the long-term wealth-building argument for investing, centered on a historical asset-return chart.
- 4. What's the goal?
Starts investment planning with personal goals, patience and the desire to regain control of one's time.
- 5. Active or passive investing
Introduces passive funds and active stock selection as different ways to participate in business ownership.
- 5.1 Appendix - Currency Value
Explains the author's view of currency debasement and why nominal savings differ from purchasing power.
- 6. The eighth marvel of the world
Illustrates compound interest and why reinvestment, time and patience can change long-term outcomes.
- 7. How the companies reward us
Explores dividends, share repurchases and retained earnings as different uses of a company's capital.
- 8. Mr Market
Uses Mr. Market to distinguish business fundamentals from fear, greed and short-term market prices.
- 9. Value investing
Introduces value investing through business ownership, independent judgment and patience across market cycles.
- 9.1 Appendix - Economic Cycles
A primer on credit, debt cycles and the opportunity cost behind the time value of money.
- 10. Circle of competence
Builds an investing circle of competence from firsthand experience, curiosity and explicit limits to one's knowledge.
- 11. Stories and numbers
Combines financial numbers with the stories of management, culture and competitive advantage.
- 12. Starting point
Introduces annual reports and the three financial statements as checks on a persuasive business story.
- 13. 10-K
Uses the 10-K as a starting point for researching businesses, risks, management and competitors.
- 14. It's a war
Explains economic moats through competition, adaptation and management's allocation of limited resources.
- 15. Income statement analysis
Examines income statements, earnings quality and the value of brands in turning attention into margins.
- 16. Balance Sheet Analysis
Explores balance-sheet resilience, intangible assets and the options a strong financial position creates.
- 17. Cash Flow Statement Analysis
Follows cash through a business to examine reinvestment, incentives and the quality of reported performance.
- 18. Intrinsic Value - Discounted Cash Flow
Builds a discounted-cash-flow framework while questioning its assumptions through code and business judgment.
Ideas in practice
Two company case studies.
Read these alongside the series. Published in 2021.
Longer-term experiments
What else I’m exploring.
Alongside my main work on local AI, two early projects explore ownership and coordination on Bitcoin.
CHFb Wallet
PrototypeExploring a Swiss-franc-denominated asset on Bitcoin, using RGB. The longer-term ambition: ownership with cash flow, governed by explicit rules.
Read the project notes ↗CHFb Agent Swarm
Pre-alpha researchCan multiple agents check one another before an action is approved? A research lab for independent review, shared decisions and a replayable audit trail.
View on GitHub Dave86ch/chfb-agent-swarmExperimental software under development; neither is a production financial service.